Alkhanov and Kadyrov – Friends or Foes?Ruslan Isayev, special to Prague Watchdog
There is a sense of foreboding in Chechnya. Rumors are spreading of a looming rift between Ramzan Kadyrov, who after the August "presidential elections" remained deputy prime minister in charge of law enforcement, and Alu Alkhanov, the newly-elected head of the Chechen Republic, which could develop into an armed opposition. Sources from both sides confirm this.
Kadyrov allegedly does not want to lose his position in Chechen society and fade into the shadows. For the son of Akhmat Kadyrov who, with his father's help, became the most influential person in Chechnya, this would be tantamount to death. He will hardly give this up without a fight.
The only thing he can do, according to many Chechen political analysts, is move on and make room at the top; a good option for him if the Chechen constitution allowed for two presidents.
As the former Chechen Interior Minister, Alkhanov was subordinate to Ramzan. Now that he is president, Alkhanov will hardly be concerned with what Kadyrov thinks. The distance between them on the power ladder will increase, though not in favor of Ramzan Kadyrov. Therefore, much depends on how Alkhanov behaves.
At the moment, public behavior of both men gives no cause for a possible rift between them. Alkhanov claims that as Akhmat Kadyrov’s successor, he will continue the work of the former president. And Ramzan Kadyrov declared on Chechen television that “everyone must rally around the young, intelligent president and support him in the work of normalizing life in Chechnya.” Thus, he tried to dispel rumors of a rift, but few in Chechnya believe his declarations.
For the warring Chechen side, that is, the guerrillas, a situation such as this would be most advantageous. For them the development of an armed opposition would be a beneficial outcome after the death of Akhmat Kadyrov.
But not for the Russian authorities. An armed conflict between Alkhanov and Kadyrov would not be the best development for Putin since he can’t back both men at the same time. Alkhanov, with his discretion and obedience to Moscow, is probably making an impresson on Putin; yet these may well be the same reasons why the Russian president likes Ramzan, the son of his friend, Akhmat Kadyrov. (Putin called Akhmat his friend after his death.)
Ramzan is right on the cutting-edge of this Chechen problem. However, when faced with the prospect of armed conflict and storm clouds gathering around him, he is quite capable of defending himself as he is very well equipped with manpower and finances.
One cannot help but feel that the policies of Russian leadership are in tatters, and that Putin himself has fallen into a trap, the very same one he set to liquidate the Chechen guerrillas. (U/E,T)
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