U.S. Seeing Chechens Russia's Way - May Be to Putin's ChagrinSummary
The acting U.S. ambassador to Georgia has selectively linked Russia's
Chechen rebellion to Osama bin Laden. The statement hands Russia a
potentially poisoned reward for its cooperation in the war on
terrorism. Depending on how the Moscow-Washington relationship
evolves, Russia either will be able to pursue Chechen militants based
in Georgia proper with a free hand -- a longtime goal -- or be forced
to accept a U.S. deployment to Georgia, Moscow's nightmare scenario.
Analysis
Philip Ramler, the acting U.S. ambassador to the former Soviet state
of Georgia, selectively linked Russia's Chechen rebellion to Osama
bin Laden in an interview published Feb. 11. The Achali Versiya
newspaper quoted him as saying that "a few dozen mujahideen fighters
from Afghanistan have appeared in the Caucasus region. … We know that
several mujahideen have taken cover in the Pankisi Gorge and are in
contact with the Arab terrorist Khattab, who in turn has contacts
with Osama bin Laden."
Khattab is the nom de guerre of a Jordanian-born militant affiliated
with Chechen fighters. The statement hands Russia, which has long
sought to link the Chechens to bin Laden's al Qaeda network, a
potentially poisoned reward for its assistance in Washington's war
against al Qaeda. Depending on how the Moscow-Washington relationship
evolves, Russia either will be able to pursue Chechen militants based
in Georgia proper with impunity -- a long-standing goal -- or be
forced to accept a U.S. deployment to Georgia, Moscow's nightmare
scenario.
This double-edged scenario will be one more test of Russia's
commitment to the United States and to the West. Although President
Vladimir Putin was swift to declare himself an ally in the U.S.-led
war against terrorism, payoffs to his country have so far been slow
to materialize.
Until recently, both Tbilisi and Washington maintained that Russia's
conflict with the Chechens -- and in particular with Chechens in the
Pankisi Gorge -- was unrelated to any international Islamic network.
Ramler's statements seem to say that Washington now stands convinced
of a connection.
This is even more evident when the ambassador's words are combined
with recent admissions from Tbilisi. Georgian Security Minister
Valery Khaburdzania said Feb. 6 on Georgian television that Chechen
warlord Ruslan Gelayev, who like Khattab is sought by Russian forces,
was probably in the Pankisi Gorge. The gorge is home to Georgia's
native Chechen minority as well as roughly 7,000 refugees from
Russia's Chechen conflict. Three days later, Khaburdzania announced
that Georgian security forces had detained several Saudi and
Jordanian citizens, supposedly linked to al Qaeda, who were allegedly
trying to create a terrorist base in the Pankisi from which to launch
attacks on Russia.
However, Ramler's statements are both boon and bane to Moscow.
Although he was careful to differentiate between Chechen independence
fighters and al Qaeda-linked mujahideen such as Khattab, he broadly
vindicated the Russian position in the Chechen war. That tacit
endorsement empowers Moscow to either push Tbilisi to take forceful
action against Chechens in the Pankisi or else allow Russian forces
to take matters into their own hands.
The admission might ultimately be used against Russia's interests,
however. U.S. President George W. Bush clearly stated in his State of
the Union address that he would strike at terrorists in places where
governments either would not or could not rout them. Georgia, where
two regions are already completely beyond central control, is a clear
candidate for such intervention.
It is a willing one as well. Tbilisi has tried, and failed, for years
to get international forces stationed on its soil to bolster its
independence from Russia. With the Pankisi declared an al Qaeda hot
spot -- with Moscow's blessing -- the United States now has a
rationale to station troops at former Russian bases within Georgia.
Vaziani, a base just outside Tbilisi that Russian forces abandoned in
2001, would fit the bill almost perfectly.
Ramler's statements give the United States a new set of options for
dealing with al Qaeda, Tbilisi and Moscow.
For Tbilisi, his words make clear the price of toeing the U.S. line
at a time when most of Washington's allies are publicly challenging
Bush's "axis of evil" stance. While European allies can hem, haw and
gripe about U.S. hegemony from a secure position, Washington could
sell Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze out to the Russians if he
so much as arches a bushy eyebrow.
For Moscow, the issue is leverage. The presence of U.S. troops in
Georgia would be far more threatening to Russia's long-term interests
than comparable deployments to Central Asia. There is little Russia
could do to stop the United States if it chooses to intervene in
Georgia. Putting U.S. troops into Georgia -- which borders NATO ally
Turkey -- could presage Georgian membership in the alliance itself.
That puts Russia in the awkward position of needing to please the
United States -- its "ally" in the war on terrorism -- in order to
avoid being flanked by NATO, its Cold War foe.
Moreover, it means Washington could dangle Georgia as a prize -- or a
hammer -- as it considers military action against Iraq. Moscow firmly
opposes any new military action against Baghdad. All of Iraq's other
friends, however, have fallen away for their own reasons, leaving
Moscow alone behind Saddam Hussein.
As for al Qaeda: Whether it is Moscow or Washington that takes action
in the Pankisi, its militants will be left with one less place to
hide. |
